Delighted to launch my latest report "Fragile States and Resilient Criminal Ecosystems - Human Smuggling and Trafficking Trends in North Africa and the Sahel."

Written with Mark Micallef, the report looks at how the human smuggling ecosystem in North Africa and the Sahel changed in 2021. It assess dynamics along the major routes connecting Africa to Europe, as well as at key Saharan human smuggling points, such as Timbuktu and Gao in Mali, and Tahoua, Kouri Kantana and Agadez in Niger.

The report also looks at why dynamics have evolved, analyzing the contrast between the weak economic resilience and fragility shown by states in North Africa and the Sahel and human smuggling and trafficking ecosystems, which have generally shown great adaptability. It looks in particular at the instrumentalization of migration management by states and armed groups in order to gain diplomatic, political, economic or legitimacy goals, and the risks this poses to states and to migrants.

Finally, the report lays out some scenarios for how dynamics may evolve in the second half of this year and offers some brief recommendations.

The report can be found here: https://globalinitiative.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Human-smuggling-and-trafficking-ecosystems-Overview.pdf