New Report: Illicit economies and peace and security in Libya

Delighted to launch a new report, written with Emadeddin Badi Badi and Rupert Horsley for the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, on illicit markets in Libya.

The report details the connections between illicit markets, armed groups and political actors. It next assesses how Libya’s five main illicit markets have evolved over the last three years and the impact that those shifts had. It ends by identifying options for tailoring UNSC activities on Libya to address illicit markets.

It can be found here.

New Article: Countering Libya’s illicit economies through targeted sanctions

Delighted to launch a short article on the use of targeted sanctions to counter illicit economies in Libya. The article is part of a broader workstream on the use of sanctions to target organized crime and corruption undertaken by The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, with a series of reports due to be launched in the coming months.

The article on Libya can be accessed here: Countering Libya’s illicit economies through targeted sanctions.

New Article: Tunisia - Strengthening of Security Force Unions Blunts Internal Control

I'm delighted to launch my latest article: 'Tunisia - Strengthening of Security Force Unions Blunts Internal Control.'

Published by ISPI and DCAF, as part of a broader dossier on pressing security force challenges in MENA, the article analyzes Tunisia's security force unions.

It traces the evolution of the syndicates, their growing strength and their evolving political role. The article then assess efforts by Tunisian President Kais Saied to unify the unions, and details the potential impacts a unified syndicate, as well as the current un-unified union system, could have on security governance under the new constitution.

The article can be found here (along with the broader dossier): https://www.ispionline.it/it/pubblicazione/tunisia-strengthening-security-force-unions-blunts-internal-control-35925

New Report: 'Fragile States and Resilient Criminal Ecosystems - Human Smuggling and Trafficking Trends in North Africa and the Sahel'

Delighted to launch my latest report "Fragile States and Resilient Criminal Ecosystems - Human Smuggling and Trafficking Trends in North Africa and the Sahel."

Written with Mark Micallef, the report looks at how the human smuggling ecosystem in North Africa and the Sahel changed in 2021. It assess dynamics along the major routes connecting Africa to Europe, as well as at key Saharan human smuggling points, such as Timbuktu and Gao in Mali, and Tahoua, Kouri Kantana and Agadez in Niger.

The report also looks at why dynamics have evolved, analyzing the contrast between the weak economic resilience and fragility shown by states in North Africa and the Sahel and human smuggling and trafficking ecosystems, which have generally shown great adaptability. It looks in particular at the instrumentalization of migration management by states and armed groups in order to gain diplomatic, political, economic or legitimacy goals, and the risks this poses to states and to migrants.

Finally, the report lays out some scenarios for how dynamics may evolve in the second half of this year and offers some brief recommendations.

The report can be found here: https://globalinitiative.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Human-smuggling-and-trafficking-ecosystems-Overview.pdf