New Chapter: The “Non-Maghreb” and Transnational Clandestine Flows from the Sahel Region

Delighted to be included in a great ISPI monograph: ‘The Cost of “Non-Maghreb”: Unpacking the Political and Economic Costs of Disunion and Divisions.’

My chapter, titled ‘The “Non-Maghreb” and Transnational Clandestine Flows from the Sahel Region,’ focuses on clandestine flows connecting the Sahel and Maghreb. It traces current dynamics around the smuggling of commodities, drugs and arms, and the movement of migrants, terrorists and mercenaries.

The chapter next turns to the structural factors which impede efforts by Maghrebi and Sahelien states to address these flows, including the structure of illicit markets, limited intra-state coordination, the growth of uncontrolled territories, and poor state relations with border communities.

The chapter ends with a brief set of policy recommendations. It can be accessed here.

New Chapter: Largely fleeting and hardly convergent: Libyas crime-terror nexus

I'm delighted to announce my latest publication: "Largely fleeting and hardly convergent: Libyas crime-terror nexus", authored in collaboration with Mark Micallef.

Since the 2011 revolution, Libya has been a state beset by conflict and fragility. Much of the international community's focus on Libya has been on ramifications of this weakness: terrorism, organized crime, and the risk of a crime-terror nexus. However, despite international concerns and ample opportunity for a nexus to emerge in Libya between terrorist organizations and criminal groups, the striking feature of the post revolution years has been the general paucity of engagement between the two types of actors. ISIS attempts in Sirte to profiteer from criminals failed, in part because the group's limited geographic footprint was easily circumventable by criminal actors. In Sabratha, contrasting incentives between ISIS and criminal groups, and the military power of the criminals, enabled the expulsion of the terrorists. In southern Libya, in contrast, AQIM has endured by pursuing a low-key approach, which accommodated local communities and armed groups. The cases presented underscore that Libya, saturated as it is with well-armed actors that depend on the black economy for their funding, is a difficult context to access for foreign terrorist organizations seeking to profit from the country's illicit economy.

The chapter is available here, though it is behind a paywall: https://www.elgaronline.com/view/edcoll/9781788979290/9781788979290.00023.xml

Terrorism in Tunisia: more than just foreign connections

This article for the Institute for Security Studies looks at the 27 June terrorist bombings in Tunis, analyzes the larger security challenges facing the country, and argues that the state and donors need to reemphasize whole of government approaches to the problem, and not double down on a security-first strategy.

It can be accessed here.

Dates that Algerian Terrorists Became Involved in Militancy: Information on 249 Terrorists Killed, Captured, or Surrendered