Terrorism

New Chapter: Largely fleeting and hardly convergent: Libyas crime-terror nexus

I'm delighted to announce my latest publication: "Largely fleeting and hardly convergent: Libyas crime-terror nexus", authored in collaboration with Mark Micallef.

Since the 2011 revolution, Libya has been a state beset by conflict and fragility. Much of the international community's focus on Libya has been on ramifications of this weakness: terrorism, organized crime, and the risk of a crime-terror nexus. However, despite international concerns and ample opportunity for a nexus to emerge in Libya between terrorist organizations and criminal groups, the striking feature of the post revolution years has been the general paucity of engagement between the two types of actors. ISIS attempts in Sirte to profiteer from criminals failed, in part because the group's limited geographic footprint was easily circumventable by criminal actors. In Sabratha, contrasting incentives between ISIS and criminal groups, and the military power of the criminals, enabled the expulsion of the terrorists. In southern Libya, in contrast, AQIM has endured by pursuing a low-key approach, which accommodated local communities and armed groups. The cases presented underscore that Libya, saturated as it is with well-armed actors that depend on the black economy for their funding, is a difficult context to access for foreign terrorist organizations seeking to profit from the country's illicit economy.

The chapter is available here, though it is behind a paywall: https://www.elgaronline.com/view/edcoll/9781788979290/9781788979290.00023.xml

Report launch: Divided They Fall: Frontiers, borderlands and stability in North Africa

Excited to launch my new report, "Divided They Fall: Frontiers, borderlands and stability in North Africa", written with Max Gallien.

The report looks at smuggling and Maghrebi states, the change in border security approaches, and the impact of such changes on borderland communities and informal and illicit markets.

The report is available here.

Terrorism in Tunisia: more than just foreign connections

This article for the Institute for Security Studies looks at the 27 June terrorist bombings in Tunis, analyzes the larger security challenges facing the country, and argues that the state and donors need to reemphasize whole of government approaches to the problem, and not double down on a security-first strategy.

It can be accessed here.